My balcony in Barcelona looks out over the rooftops of Gràcia to Eixample and Montjuic beyond. Planes queue up behind Montjuic on their way to land at El Prat, over to the right in the distance. To the left, three or four cranes surround La Sagrada Familia. They turn slowly and stretch upwards. In the foreground there are a multitude of flats; each with balconies and terraces that fill up in the summer for parties and dinners.

I’m English and grew up in houses, so this balcony view from the top floor is still a bit of a novelty for me. Even more than two years after moving in. I often stand there and look out and, as I do so, I’m reminded of the opening scene of the Hitchcock film, Rear Window. Hundreds of lives playing out around a central forecourt. Couples arguing, kids playing and shouting over the distant bells of an old church.

But if you can block out all of these other sights and sounds, it’s the flags that you notice. There must be about 30 or more within view, fluttering in the summer breeze. Creating a blur of colour. And all of them the are the same – red and yellow stripes with a star. The Catalan Independence flag.

The protest flag

If you’ve been to Barcelona in the last few years, you’ll have surely seen these flags. All you have to do is look up. At times it feels like every other balcony has the flag hanging from it. It’s also in doorways, shop windows and in graffiti on walls.

If you like football and have been to watch Barça, you’ll definitely have seen the flag. At Camp Nou, supporters unfurl it on the 17th minute and 14th second of each half.

Why that exact time? Well, in 1714 Barcelona fell in the War of the Spanish Succession and Catalonia was swallowed up into the rest of Spain. In Barcelona, even at a football match, you can’t avoid politics and symbolism.

While I’ve lived in Barcelona, the topic of Catalan Independence has been like waves rolling onto the shore. Sometimes the sea is fairly calm, but the current is always there under the surface and a big wave could arrive any minute and take you by surprise. This summer, the tide seems stronger than usual.

The Catalan Independence Vote (version 2)

The Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, announced last month that a referendum on Catalan Independence would take place on 1 October this year. But this isn’t the same as the referendum held in Scotland a few years ago. It isn’t backed by the Spanish government. In fact, they vehemently oppose it and have declared that any referendum would be illegal.

Shortly after I arrived in Barcelona in the autumn of 2014, there was another vote on Catalan Independence. However, unlike the one planned for October, it was largely symbolic and was not binding in any way. Because of that, many of those who would have voted “no” didn’t show up. Still, the then President of Catalonia, Artur Mas, said at the time that it was “a lesson in democracy”.

It was around this time that I first heard people take to their balconies with pots and pans for a louder protest.

Earlier this year, Mas was charged by the Spanish court for his role in allowing the 2014 vote to take place. He was banned from holding public office for two years.

A divisive issue

In the time I’ve lived in Barcelona, I’ve spoken to quite a lot of people about Catalan Independence. Unsurprisingly it tends to come up quite a lot around dinner tables and in bars. You don’t find many who are ambivalent about it. But it’s an emotional, divisive issue. I know two couples who have opposite views on it, which makes for some entertaining (and sometimes awkward) post-dinner conversations.

Whenever I’ve been asked for my opinion on the subject, I’ve attempted to do so in the classic English, diplomatic style. But it’s more interesting to hear from those who are passionate one way or the other.

Most of those I’ve spoken to about it are around my age. They’ve gone to schools where Catalan is the main language spoken. Most of them would probably say that they’re Catalan first and Spanish second.

But it’s very complicated. I know people who come from families with roots outside the region who are pro-independence. While others who are from a long line of Catalans think it’s a bad idea.

The arguments for and against

Those I know who are pro-independence don’t have any bad feeling toward Spain or Spanish people, and indeed travel there regularly for work or holidays. Many have family there. Some even feel Spanish. However, they cite a variety of reasons as to why they think Catalonia would be better off on its own. Aside from the more obvious differences in language and culture, they point to Madrid’s monopoly on business opportunities and its veto of similar ones in Barcelona. They also mention the amount of money lost from Catalonia to the rest of Spain. But there are more.

Those who think independence would be a bad idea think it’s another example, like Brexit, of people reacting to tougher economic conditions by closing themselves off in smaller communities. They recognise that politics in Spain needs to improve, but think there’s a better chance of doing it together.

A complicated country

A week ago, Tobias Buck wrote a great, in-depth piece about Catalan Independence in the Financial Times. In it he said that every estelada (Catalan flag) hanging from balconies in Barcelona acts as a reminder to Spain of its historical failure to forge a single nation from the diverse groups of languages and cultures that exist in the country.

Spain is a complicated country with a problematic past. It’s a country that has found it difficult to come to terms with the Civil War that took place 80 years ago. If you walk around Barcelona, you might stumble upon a place like Plaça de Sant Felip Neri, which still displays the scars of a bomb from that era. It’s there so that people remember.

Does a difficult past point to an even more troublesome future? What is likely to happen when Catalans vote on October 1?

The future of Catalonia

At the weekend, La Vanguardia released the results of a survey on independence among Catalans. When asked how they would vote, 43% said they would vote for independence, while 38% said they would vote against. However, if the last couple of years has taught us anything, it’s that a lot can change in the weeks leading up to a vote.

Madrid has warned that it will do whatever it takes to ensure the vote doesn’t even happen. But what would that look like in practice? Would they risk the negative worldwide press of forcibly preventing the vote?

A recent New York Times article suggested that Madrid’s intransigence risks inflaming Catalan frustrations still further. I agree.

I think it would be better for them to at least communicate with the Catalan government rather than simply refuse to acknowledge the situation. Pro-independence supporters might see October 1 as a win-win situation otherwise.

The Catalan flags that hang from balconies in Barcelona and across Catalonia act as a silent protest. The months leading up to October 1 will give us a good indication of whether their presence is a forerunner of a future, independent Catalonia (or at least one with more powers); or that of an even more bitter, divided Spain.